Illustrating Ensemble Predictability across Scales Associated with the 13–15 February 2019 Atmospheric River Event

Experiments with the Synchronous Methodology Illustrating Its Support of Predictability

This paper analyses experiments with the Signal programming environment for the design of safety-critical systems, with an emphasis on predictable behaviour. This environment is based upon a data-ow language and a synchronous model; the composition of interacting subsystems and tasking of data-ow processes do not introduce unpredictability. It ooers integrated tools for transformations and anal...

Atmospheric predictability revisited

This article examines the potential to improve numerical weather prediction (NWP) by estimating upper and lower bounds on predictability by re-visiting the original study of Lorenz (1982) but applied to the most recent version of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) forecast system, for both the deterministic and ensemble prediction systems (EPS). These bounds are cont...

Cover Vol 16, No 1, February 2019

Investigation of the atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with extreme rainfall events over the Coastal West Africa

This study investigates the atmospheric circulation associated with extreme rainfall events over the coastal West Africa. The rainfall data of this study were obtained from the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), spanning from 1981 to 2010. The atmospheric datasets were also obtained from the ERA-Interim reanalysis. The study employed the Z-Index to categorize dry and wet years into...

Predictability of ecosystem engineering effects on species richness across environmental variability and spatial scales

1 The effect of physical ecosystem engineering – structurally mediated modification of the abiotic environment by organisms – on species richness and composition probably depends on the area of observation and environmental context. 2 We develop specific hypotheses to evaluate how such effects will vary with spatial scale and environmental variability, and test these hypotheses by examining the...